HOLD · EN · FREE
5. Scenario calculations without promises
Set the assumptions first
The calculator answers: “What arithmetic follows from these assumptions?” It does not assign a deadline, probability or certainty to the market capitalisation you enter. The interface takes total market cap in trillions of dollars and BTC and stablecoin shares in percentages. Changes in the coin's share and future circulation are multipliers relative to the initial snapshot.
The model's altcoin pool excludes BTC and stablecoins but includes ETH. Do not automatically call it TOTAL3. Check the definition and provider displayed in the current interface. With BTC at 55% and stablecoins at 10%, the remainder is 35%, or 0.35. Do not insert 35 into the formula as though it were already a fractional share.
Work through a hypothetical calculation
Suppose the total market is $4 trillion. The altcoin pool is 4 × (1 − 0.55 − 0.10) = $1.4 trillion, or $1,400 billion. Our practice coin has 0.1% of that pool, which is 0.001 as a fraction. Its market cap is $1.4 trillion × 0.001 = $1.4 billion. At a future circulation of 700 million, price is 1,400 million / 700 million = $2. If the starting price is $1, the conditional multiple X is 2.
Increase circulation by 25%: 700 × 1.25 = 875 million. At the same market cap, price is 1,400 / 875 = $1.60 and X is 1.6. If the coin's share also halves, market cap becomes $700 million and price at 875 million tokens becomes $0.80. A larger overall market does not protect a token from losing share or dilution.
Stress the assumptions
Write four rows: initial assumptions, increased circulation, reduced coin share, and both changes together. Keep the units consistent in every row. Change assumptions one at a time so that the cause remains visible. A supply multiplier of 1 means no dilution within that calculation; it does not establish future issuance.
All figures in this example are invented for learning. A real selected card starts from another snapshot and need not show $2. Preserve your assumptions alongside the conclusion. An attractive X without its inputs is not a research result.